The 4 days of intense near-war, which introduced Pakistan to its knees and compelled it to hunt a ceasefire, have given the Narendra Modi authorities a major increase in energy and stability. The repercussions of this might echo far and large in Indian politics.
The rapid query on everybody’s thoughts is what occurs subsequent, and the way will Operation Sindoor form home politics? Given India’s obsession with politics and the fixed churn of election calculations, it is just pure to wonder if this may sway the citizens at giant.
The following spherical of elections begins with the Bihar Legislative Meeting polls in October-November this 12 months, adopted by Assam and West Bengal in March-April, 2026. Puducherry goes to the polls in April, Tamil Nadu in April-Might, and Kerala in Might subsequent 12 months.
Public reminiscence, in fact, is brief. Aside from Bihar, the place voting is simply 5 months away, the opposite elections are practically a 12 months from now. However politicians, particularly the BJP, have mastered the artwork of holding the narrative alive for lengthy stretches. The BJP reaped the rewards of the Kargil Warfare within the 1999 elections.
That battle got here at an important time, simply after the Atal Bihari Vajpayee authorities had misplaced a belief vote in Parliament and was functioning as a caretaker authorities till contemporary elections have been held. Although the armed forces fought and gained the warfare in treacherous terrain, the political dividend went to the BJP, which returned to energy with better numbers.
The get together benefitted once more in 2019 after the surgical strike on terror camps in Balakot, Pakistan. The Modi authorities didn’t go on the lookout for that chance. It was handed to them. The February 14, 2019, Pulwama assault on a CRPF convoy sparked nationwide outrage and calls for for retribution.
The February 26 surgical strike dealt a heavy blow to Pakistan and, coming simply months earlier than the overall elections, successfully crushed the opposition’s hopes of unseating Modi.
The Congress, specifically, broken its credibility by questioning the federal government on the Rafale deal and demanding proof of the surgical strike. The BJP stormed again to energy, crossing the 300-seat mark within the Lok Sabha.
An analogous wave of nationwide anger erupted after the April 26 Pahalgam bloodbath of vacationers. This time, even the Opposition stood with the federal government, demanding retaliation. India’s response, a collection of precision strikes deep inside Pakistan, left the neighbour humiliated and scrambling for a ceasefire.
Nationalist sentiment reached an unprecedented peak, maybe amplified by social media’s function in shaping public opinion. Even Modi’s staunchest critics momentarily put aside their grievances, sensing the general public temper.
For now, the restricted warfare is over. Pakistan’s solely comfort was securing a $1 billion IMF mortgage, doubtless with undisclosed circumstances together with the ceasefire. India, too, had its cause to comply with the truce. IMF, on this case, stood for Indian Mission Fulfilled.
The Opposition, having learnt from previous errors, was cautious to not oppose the federal government this time. That denies the BJP the possibility to color them as anti-national. However that doesn’t imply the BJP’s nationalist narrative has misplaced steam. The Bihar elections, essential for the get together, would be the first take a look at of whether or not this nationalist fervour interprets into votes.
The BJP can tailor its marketing campaign by contrasting its decisive motion towards Pakistan with earlier governments’ perceived helplessness within the face of cross-border terrorism. References to Pakistan and reminders that the Pahalgam victims have been focused based mostly on faith may assist consolidate Hindu votes, with slogans like Batenge to Katenge putting a chord.
Even so, the BJP-led NDA is aware of profitable Bihar won’t be straightforward. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s fading recognition and questions on his psychological agility have weakened the alliance.
The choice to conduct a caste-based census was clearly aimed on the elections, an try to win over sections of voters who consider such an train will deal with their grievances, by no means thoughts that previous censuses figuring out Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes haven’t led to tangible advantages for them.
Bihar’s voters have additionally proven a bent to vote in another way in Lok Sabha and Meeting elections. The BJP’s stellar performances within the 2014 and 2019 normal elections didn’t carry over to the state polls in 2015 and 2020.
A victory in Bihar, fuelled by anti-Pakistan rhetoric, may embolden the BJP to deploy the identical technique in West Bengal, the place communal tensions in Murshidabad stay a dwell problem. In 2021, the BJP got here agonisingly near toppling Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress from energy however fell brief. With the Left and Congress now diminished to mere spectators, the BJP is the one drive that may push Mamata to the sting.
This communal-tinged nationalist method might discover restricted attraction in southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the place regional identification and native points dominate political discourse.
Nonetheless, in Bihar, Assam and West Bengal, the place safety considerations and nationwide delight can affect voting behaviour, it may turn into a decisive issue. The problem for the BJP now could be to maintain this nationalist momentum till these states go to the polls after which convert it into electoral beneficial properties.
Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, creator and political commentator.
